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2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u5230\u4eca\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u5317\u52a0\u98fd\u53d7\u72c2\u98a8\u8c6a\u96e8\u66b4\u96ea\u4e4b\u82e6\uff0c\u964d\u6c34\u591a\u5230\u5c07\u5168\u570b\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u58e9Oroville\u6d29\u6d2a\u9053\u6c96\u58de\uff0c\u5317\u52a0\u5c0f\u93aeMaxwell\u6df9\u6c92\uff0c\u9084\u8b93San Jose\u906d\u767e\u5e74\u4e00\u9047\u6c34\u707d\uff0c\u5404\u5730\u707d\u60c5\u6158\u91cd\uff0c\u5dde\u4f30\u8a08\u5149\u4eca\u5e74\u982d\u5169\u500b\u6708\u6d2a\u6f87\u4e4b\u707d\u4fee\u5fa9\u8cbb\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u904e\u5341\u5104\u3002\u5be6\u96e3\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u5728\u98a8\u66b4\u5b63\u958b\u59cb\u524d\u76842016\u5e749\u670827\u65e5\uff0c\u5168\u52a0\u5dde\u90fd\u4ecd\u5728\u4e7e\u65f1\u8b66\u6212\u4e2d\u3002\u7121\u6c34\u4e4b\u82e6\u8a18\u61b6\u7336\u65b0\uff0c\u8001\u5929\u723a\u5c31\u4e00\u6b21\u7d66\u4f60\u500b\u6c34\u591a\u5230\u6210\u707d\uff0c\u6975\u7aef\u75db\u82e6\u5c0d\u6bd4\u6975\u7aef\u8056\u5b30(El Nino)\u8207\u8056\u599e(La Nina)\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u52a0\u5dde\u4f3c\u4e4e\u9677\u5165\u6975\u7aef\u300c\u6c34\u6df1\u706b\u71b1\u300d\u5e74\u4ee3\u3002 \u00a0 \u300c\u6c34\u300d\u6709\u591a\u300c\u6df1\u300d\u5462\uff1f\u52a0\u5dde\u964d\u6c34\u5b63\u4e00\u822c\u4f86\u8aaa\u90fd\u662f\u5f9e\u5341\u6708\u5230\u9694\u5e74\u56db\u6708\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u56de\u8fc4\u4eca\u70ba\u6b62\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u4e0b\u5230Oroville\u53d7\u640d\u3001\u5c0f\u93ae\u88ab\u6df9\u3001\u5404\u8655\u9053\u8def\u6bc0\u58de\u5916\uff0c\u9023\u77fd\u8c37\u91cd\u8981\u6c34\u5eabAnderson\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u4e8c\u6708\u5e95\u90a3\u5834\u767e\u5e74\u4e00\u9047\u66b4\u96e8\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u5b83\u81ea2006\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u9996\u5ea6\u56e0\u6eff\u8f09\u5bb9\u91cf\u800c\u6d29\u6d2a\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e0b\u6e38San Jose\u7684Coyote Creek\u6cbf\u5cb8\u6df9\u5927\u6c34\uff0c\u8ca1\u7522\u640d\u5931\u4f30\u8a08\u9054\u4e03\u5343\u591a\u842c\u3002\u81f3\u4e8c\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u5df2\u6709\u4e09\u5341\u500b\u7531\u300c\u9cf3\u68a8\u5feb\u905e\u300d(Pineapple Express)\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u51ac\u5b63\u98a8\u66b4\u5439\u8972\u52a0\u5dde\uff0c\u6bd4\u6b63\u5e38\u591a\u4e00\u500d\uff0c\u4e14\u9664\u4e861\u670820\u65e5\u90a3\u4e00\u500b\u5916\uff0c\u5176\u5b83\u90fd\u5439\u5411\u5317\u52a0\u3002 \u00a0 \u300c\u706b\u300d\u53c8\u6709\u591a\u300c\u71b1\u300d\u5462\uff1f\u5c31\u62ff\u91ce\u706b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5dde\u6d88\u9632\u90e8\u5e74\u5ea6\u5831\u544a\u7d71\u8a08\uff0c2011\u81f32015\u5e74\u5171\u767c\u751f39,178\u8d77\uff0c\u71d2\u6bc03,165,897\u755d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4ee52012\u5e74\u56e0\u9583\u96fb\u9020\u6210\u7684Lassen\u7e23Rush\u91ce\u706b\uff0c\u5149\u52a0\u5dde\u5c31\u71d2\u4e86271,911\u755d\u91ce\u5730\uff0c\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u91ce\u706b\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u52a0\u4e0a\u5167\u83ef\u9054\u5dde43,666\u755d\uff0c\u5c31\u9060\u591a2003\u5e74San Diego\u7e23Cedar\u91ce\u706b\u56db\u842c\u5169\u5343\u591a\u755d\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u91ce\u706b\u6210\u56e0\u8af8\u591a\uff0c\u4eba\u70ba\u5f80\u5f80\u5360\u591a\u6578\uff0c\u4f46\u5929\u4e7e\u7269\u71e5\u7684\u65f1\u60c5\u662f\u8b93\u5176\u71ce\u539f\u7684\u6839\u672c\uff0c\u4e14\u4e00\u71d2\u5c31\u52d5\u8f12\u904d\u91ce\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u9084\u52a0\u4e0a\u5efa\u7269\u3001\u751f\u547d\u8207\u91d1\u9322\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u50cf2015\u5e74Napa\u3001Sonoma\u8207Lake\u7e23\u7684Valley\u91ce\u706b\uff0c1,955\u68df\u5efa\u7269\u71d2\u6bc0\u30014\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3001\u4e09\u7e23\u640d\u5931\u4e8c\u5341\u591a\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u662f1991\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u5317\u52a0\u91ce\u706b\u4fdd\u96aa\u652f\u51fa\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u3002 \u00a0 \u9019\u500b\u5225\u7684\u6c34\u60a3\u65f1\u707d\u6216\u8a31\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u52a0\u8d77\u4f86\u80af\u5b9a\u5c31\u662f\u3002\u53bb\u5e7411\u670810\u65e5\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u6d77\u6d0b\u5927\u6c23\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40(National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, NOAA)\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\u5fc3(Climate Prediction Center)\u526f\u4e3b\u4efbMike Halpert\u767c\u5e03\u65b0\u805e\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u5f31\u52e2\u7684\u8056\u599e\u73fe\u8c61\u5df2\u6b63\u5f0f\u6210\u5f62\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u70ba\u5317\u52a0\u5e36\u4f86\u8d85\u904e\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u51ac\u5b63\u964d\u6c34\uff0c\u800c\u5357\u52a0\u5247\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7dad\u6301\u6216\u64f4\u5927\u4e7e\u65f1\u60c5\u5f62\u3002\u8056\u599e\u662f\u8056\u5b30\u7684\u76f8\u53cd\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u6309\u5b78\u754c\u666e\u904d\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u5927\u6c23\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(National Center for Atmospheric Research) \u8cc7\u6df1\u7814\u7a76\u54e1Kevin E. Trenberth\uff0c\u65bc1997\u5e74\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u6c23\u8c61\u5b78\u6703(American Meteorological Society)\u6240\u767c\u8868\u7684\u300a\u8056\u5b30\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u300b(The Definition of El Nino)\uff0c\u5728\u5357\u5317\u7def5\u00b0\u5167\uff0c\u897f\u7d93120\u00b0\u81f3170\u00b0\u9593\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97\u4e94\u500b\u6708\u7684\u6d77\u9762\u6eab\u5ea6\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u82e5\u9ad8\u65bc\u6c23\u5019\u6a19\u6e96\u5e73\u5747\u503c0.4\u00b0C\u9054\u516d\u500b\u6708\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u7a31\u70ba\u8056\u5b30\u73fe\u8c61\uff1b\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e73\u5747\u503c0.4\u00b0C\u9054\u516d\u500b\u6708\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5247\u7a31\u70ba\u8056\u599e\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u6c83\u514b\u74b0\u6d41(Walker Circulation)\u6b63\u5e38\u6642\uff0c\u71b1\u5e36\u6771\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6c23\u58d3\u5834\u9ad8\u65bc\u897f\u90e8\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6703\u7522\u751f\u71b1\u5e36\u6771\u5357\u4fe1\u98a8\uff0c\u6d0b\u6d41\u671d\u897f\u8d70\uff0c\u6771\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6703\u7522\u751f\u6e67\u5347\u6d41\uff0c\u6d77\u6eab\u8f03\u4f4e\u3002\u5728\u8056\u5b30\u73fe\u8c61\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u53cd\u6b64\u81ea\u7136\u97fb\u5f8b\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u8056\u599e\u73fe\u8c61\u671f\uff0c\u5247\u5f37\u5316\u6b64\u97fb\u5f8b\u3002 \u00a0 \u5730\u7403\u662f\u5713\u7684\uff0c\u5927\u6c23\u662f\u76f8\u901a\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u52a0\u5dde\u5929\u6c23\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u7d55\u4e0d\u53ea\u8056\u5b30\u53ca\u8056\u599e\u9019\u5169\u50a2\u4f19\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9084\u6709\u8207\u4e7e\u65f1\u606f\u606f\u76f8\u95dc\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u4e94\u5e74\u76e4\u64da\u52a0\u5dde\u5916\u6d77\u7684\u9ad8\u58d3\u810a(High Pressure Air Ridge)\uff1b\u9019\u56de\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u6df9\u6c34\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4fd7\u7a31\u300c\u9cf3\u68a8\u5feb\u905e\u300d\u7684\u5927\u6c23\u6cb3(Atmospheric River)\uff1b\u9084\u6709\u9020\u6210\u8d85\u7d1a\u5bd2\u6d41\u7684\u5317\u6975\u9707\u76ea(Arctic Oscillation)\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u8b93\u6c23\u5019\u7570\u5e38\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u591a\u6578\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u90fd\u8a8d\u70ba\u8207\u5730\u7403\u6696\u5316\u6709\u95dc\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u904e\u5ffd\u71b1\u5ffd\u51b7\u7684\u5929\u6c23\uff0c\u4e5f\u8b93\u53e6\u4e00\u6279\u4eba\u61f7\u7591\u771f\u7684\u55ce\uff1f\u5305\u62ec\u65b0\u7e3d\u7d71\u5728\u5167\u3002 \u00a0 \u4e0d\u7ba1\u600e\u6a23\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u6b63\u6d3b\u5728\u4e0d\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u7570\u5e38\u7684\u8056\u5b30\u8056\u599e\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u4e5f\u9084\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u898f\u5f8b\u7522\u751f\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u6700\u8fd1\u9019\u4e00\u56de\u7684\u8056\u5b30\u8207\u8056\u599e\uff0c\u53ef\u8b02\u662f\u7570\u5e38\u4e2d\u7684\u7570\u5e38\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u7522\u751f\u7684\u6700\u4e0d\u81ea\u7136\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4ed6\u5011\u5c6c\u8d85\u5f37\u8056\u5b30\u8207\u8d85\u5f31\u8056\u599e\u7684\u7d44\u5408\u3002Halpert\u4e8c\u6708\u521d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7dca\u63a5\u5728\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5f37\u8056\u5b30\u4e4b\u4e00\u5f8c\u4f86\u5230\u7684\u9019\u6b21\u8056\u599e\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u53ea\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u56db\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u662f\u6709\u8a18\u9304\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5f31\u6700\u77ed\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u3002\u8a31\u591a\u96fb\u8166\u6a21\u578b\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u4eca\u5e74\u590f\u672b\u79cb\u521d\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u518d\u5f62\u6210\u53e6\u500b\u8056\u5b30\uff0c\u4f46NOAA\u5c1a\u672a\u5c0d\u6b64\u505a\u51fa\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8056\u5b30\u53c8\u5f88\u5feb\u56de\u4f86\uff0c\u9019\u5c07\u5f88\u4e0d\u5c0b\u5e38\u3002\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u4e09\u5e74\u5167\uff0c\u5f9e\u8056\u5b30\u5230\u8056\u599e\u53c8\u56de\u5230\u8056\u5b30\uff0c\u9019\u53ea\u6709\u57281960\u5e74\u4ee3\u66fe\u7d93\u767c\u751f\u904e\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4ed6\u9019\u9ebc\u6307\u51fa\u3002\u53f2\u4e39\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u5f71\u97ff\u52a0\u5dde\u964d\u6c34\u7684\u5927\u6c23\u74b0\u6d41\u6a21\u5f0f\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53bb\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u9019\u56de\u4e7e\u65f1\u7684\u5404\u9805\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u5e74\u5167\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u983b\u7e41\u51fa\u73fe\u3002 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