{"id":202706,"date":"2021-06-13T01:56:43","date_gmt":"2021-06-13T08:56:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsforchinese.com\/v3\/?p=202706"},"modified":"2021-06-13T01:56:54","modified_gmt":"2021-06-13T08:56:54","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%be%a9%e7%94%a6%e8%88%87%e4%bb%a5%e5%be%80%e6%9c%894%e5%a4%a7%e5%b7%ae%e7%95%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsforchinese.com\/v3\/2021\/06\/13\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%be%a9%e7%94%a6%e8%88%87%e4%bb%a5%e5%be%80%e6%9c%894%e5%a4%a7%e5%b7%ae%e7%95%b0\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u8207\u4ee5\u5f80\u67094\u5927\u5dee\u7570"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u300c\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u65e5\u5831\u300d\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u4f01\u696d\u6b63\u4ee5\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u5d1b\u8d77\u3002\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u52de\u5de5\u81ea\u9858\u96e2\u8077\u7387\uff0c\u8ffd\u5e73\u4e86\u81f3\u5c112000\u5e74\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u5bb6\u6236\u511f\u50b5\u7684\u91d1\u984d\u5360\u7a05\u5f8c\u6240\u5f97\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u8fd1\u4e4e1980\u5e74\u6709\u7d00\u9304\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\u9053\u74ca\u5de5\u696d\u6307\u6578\u8f032020\u5e742\u6708\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u767c\u524d\u7684\u9ad8\u9ede\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e86\u8fd118%\uff0c\u800c\u5f9e\u7576\u6642\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u5168\u7f8e\u623f\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e86\u8fd1 14%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7d93\u6fdf\u53cd\u5f48\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5f15\u767c\u4e86\u52d5\u76ea\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u63a5\u8fd1\u64f4\u5f35\u7d50\u675f\u6642\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u3001\u539f\u6750\u6599\u548c\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u77ed\u7f3a\u554f\u984c\u63d0\u65e9\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u8a31\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u548c\u806f\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\uff08Fed\uff09\u90fd\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u6500\u5347\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u6642\u73fe\u8c61\uff1b\u4f46\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u64d4\u5fc3\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u5df2\u7d93\u5b8c\u5168\u6062\u5fa9\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6c7a\u7b56\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u516c\u53f8\uff08Decision Economics, Inc. \uff09\u9996\u5e2d\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u517c\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u8cfd\u5948(Allen Sinai) \u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u5f9e\u672a\u7d93\u6b77\u904e\u9019\u985e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5d29\u6f70\u5f8c\u5982\u69ae\u666f\u822c\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u5f9e\u672a\u898b\u904e\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53bb\u5e74\u6625\u5929\uff0c2019\u51a0\u72c0\u75c5\u6bd2\u75be\u75c5\uff08COVID-19\uff09\u9632\u75ab\u5c01\u9396\u63aa\u65bd\u8b93\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5982\u81ea\u7531\u843d\u9ad4\u822c\u4e0b\u589c\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u548c\u6c7a\u7b56\u7576\u5c40\u64d4\u5fc3\uff0c\u52de\u5de5\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u6050\u6015\u9700\u8981\u6578\u5e74\u7684\u6642\u9593\u624d\u80fd\u6062\u5fa9\u5143\u6c23\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u537b\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u898f\u6a21\u5c07\u5728\u672c\u5b63\u8d85\u904e\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u767c\u4e4b\u524d\u3002\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u9810\u4f30\uff0c\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\uff08GDP\uff09\u5c07\u6b65\u4e0a\u5018\u82e5\u672a\u66fe\u767c\u751f\u75ab\u60c5\u539f\u61c9\u8e0f\u4e0a\u7684\u8ecc\u8de1\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u81f3\u5c11\u6703\u66ab\u6642\u8d85\u8d8a\u5b83\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u57281990\uff0d1991\u5e74\u30012001\u5e74\u4ee5\u53ca2007\uff0d2009 \u5e74\u7b49\u6642\u671f\u7684\u5fa9\u7526\u662f\u300c\u7121\u5c31\u696d\u300d\u7684\u5fa9\u7526\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u75b2\u8edf\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u96c7\u4e3b\u5c0d\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u5931\u696d\u7387\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u5fa9\u7526\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u7dca\u4fcf\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u50f1\u7528\u6210\u672c\u6307\u6578\u5b63\u589e 0.9%\uff0c\u70ba2007\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u589e\u5e45\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5931\u696d\u73876.1%\u4ecd\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u6e96\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u65e5\u5831\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u5fa9\u7526\u8207\u4ee5\u5f80\u5fa9\u7526\u67094\u5927\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u25cf\u81ea\u7136\u707d\u5bb3\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u707d\u5bb3<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">GailFosler Group LLC \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u517c\u7e3d\u88c1\u4f5b\u65af\u52d2\uff08Gail Fosler\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u8870\u9000\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u503c\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u800c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u51fa\u3001\u6536\u5165\u548c\u5c31\u696d\u9020\u6210\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u8d85\u904e\u4e00\u5e74\u30022007\u5e74\u623f\u5e02\u5d29\u76e4\u5f8c\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u8ca1\u52d9\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u53d7\u5230\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u800c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5275\u9054\u6578\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0cCOVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u6e90\u65bc\u91d1\u878d\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u985e\u4f3c\u5929\u707d\u7834\u58de\u9020\u6210\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5b\u65af\u52d2\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u300c\u75ab\u60c5\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u985b\u8986\u4e86\u666f\u6c23\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5929\u707d\u6703\u9020\u6210\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u4e2d\u65b7\uff0c\u4f46\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u52de\u52d9\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e26\u672a\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u707d\u96e3\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u5c07\u6bd4\u5178\u578b\u8870\u9000\u5f8c\u7684\u5fa9\u7526\u4f86\u5f97\u5feb\u30022018\u5e74\u4e00\u9805\u7814\u7a76\u7d10\u5967\u826f\u5c45\u6c11\u5831\u7a05\u7684\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5361\u5d14\u5a1c\u98b6\u98a8 \uff08Hurricane Katrina\uff09\u91cd\u5275\u5f8c\uff0c\u707d\u6c11\u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5728\u5e7e\u5e74\u5167\u53cd\u5f48\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8d85\u904e\u975e\u707d\u6c11\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u25cf\u8ca8\u5e63\u548c\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9019\u6b21\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u8fc5\u901f\u800c\u4e14\u8f03\u591a\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u548c\u8ca1\u653f\u5c0d\u7b56\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u4e26\u66ff\u5feb\u901f\u5fa9\u7526\u5960\u5b9a\u57fa\u790e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u555f\u52d5\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u8cfc\u50b5\uff0c\u4e26\u627f\u8afe\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u8fd1\u4e4e\u96f6\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u4e14\u901a\u81a8\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u6c34\u6e962% \u3002\u5b98\u54e1\u8868\u793a\uff0c2024\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u4e0d\u6703\u5347\u606f\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u5f9e2020\u5e743\u6708\u521d\u76844.2\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u98c6\u5347\u81f35\u6708\u5e95\u8fd17.1\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u76f8\u8f03\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u81a8\u8139\u4e0d\u52301.3\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u570b\u6703\u4e5f\u6bd4\u524d\u5e7e\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6642\u66f4\u5feb\u901f\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u901a\u904e\u591a\u56de\u5408\u7684\u632f\u8208\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u64f4\u5927\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u91d1\u548c\u85aa\u8cc7\u4fdd\u8b77\u8a08\u756b\uff0c\u4f86\u652f\u6490\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u3002\u6839\u64da\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u9810\u7b97\u554f\u8cac\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget\uff09\uff0c\u570b\u6703\u5c0d\u75ab\u60c5\u796d\u51fa\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u56e0\u61c9\u91d1\u984d\u5c07\u9054\u52305.1\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5360\u4e86\u76f4\u52302024\u5e74\u7684\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\u76844.4%\u3002\u76f8\u8f03\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c2007\u81f32009\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5f8c\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u632f\u8208\u65b9\u6848\u91d1\u984d\u7d041.8\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u53602008\u5e74\u81f32012\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\u76842.4%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ING\u9996\u5e2d\u570b\u969b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5948\u7279\u5229\uff08James Knightley\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u5bb6\u5ead\u6240\u5f97\u6bd4\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5c0d\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u800c\u8a00\u3002\u5931\u696d\u53d7\u76ca\u4eba\u73fe\u5728\u9818\u5230\u7684\u6551\u6fdf\u91d1\u984d\u6bd4\u4e4b\u524d\u591a\u51fa300\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u76f8\u8f03\u4e0b\uff0c2007\uff0d2009\u5e74\u8870\u9000\u6642\u671f\u70ba25\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u4e00\u9805\u7814\u7a76\u767c\u73fe\uff0c42%\u7684\u53d7\u76ca\u4eba\u7372\u5f97\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4ed6\u5011\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u25cf\u6bd4\u8f03\u5065\u5168\u7684\u5bb6\u6236\u548c\u4f01\u696d<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u8fea\u5357 (Karen Dynan) 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Fosler\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u8870\u9000\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u503c\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u800c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u51fa\u3001\u6536\u5165\u548c\u5c31\u696d\u9020\u6210\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u8d85\u904e\u4e00\u5e74\u30022007\u5e74\u623f\u5e02\u5d29\u76e4\u5f8c\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u8ca1\u52d9\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u53d7\u5230\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u800c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5275\u9054\u6578\u5e74\u3002 \u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0cCOVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u6e90\u65bc\u91d1\u878d\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u985e\u4f3c\u5929\u707d\u7834\u58de\u9020\u6210\u7684\u3002 \u4f5b\u65af\u52d2\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u300c\u75ab\u60c5\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u985b\u8986\u4e86\u666f\u6c23\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u300d \u5929\u707d\u6703\u9020\u6210\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u4e2d\u65b7\uff0c\u4f46\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u52de\u52d9\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e26\u672a\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u707d\u96e3\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u5c07\u6bd4\u5178\u578b\u8870\u9000\u5f8c\u7684\u5fa9\u7526\u4f86\u5f97\u5feb\u30022018\u5e74\u4e00\u9805\u7814\u7a76\u7d10\u5967\u826f\u5c45\u6c11\u5831\u7a05\u7684\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5361\u5d14\u5a1c\u98b6\u98a8 \uff08Hurricane Katrina\uff09\u91cd\u5275\u5f8c\uff0c\u707d\u6c11\u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5728\u5e7e\u5e74\u5167\u53cd\u5f48\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8d85\u904e\u975e\u707d\u6c11\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3002 \u25cf\u8ca8\u5e63\u548c\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56 \u9019\u6b21\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u8fc5\u901f\u800c\u4e14\u8f03\u591a\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u548c\u8ca1\u653f\u5c0d\u7b56\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u4e26\u66ff\u5feb\u901f\u5fa9\u7526\u5960\u5b9a\u57fa\u790e\u3002 \u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u555f\u52d5\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u8cfc\u50b5\uff0c\u4e26\u627f\u8afe\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u8fd1\u4e4e\u96f6\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u4e14\u901a\u81a8\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u6c34\u6e962% \u3002\u5b98\u54e1\u8868\u793a\uff0c2024\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u4e0d\u6703\u5347\u606f\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u5f9e2020\u5e743\u6708\u521d\u76844.2\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u98c6\u5347\u81f35\u6708\u5e95\u8fd17.1\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u76f8\u8f03\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u81a8\u8139\u4e0d\u52301.3\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u3002 \u570b\u6703\u4e5f\u6bd4\u524d\u5e7e\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6642\u66f4\u5feb\u901f\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u901a\u904e\u591a\u56de\u5408\u7684\u632f\u8208\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u64f4\u5927\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u91d1\u548c\u85aa\u8cc7\u4fdd\u8b77\u8a08\u756b\uff0c\u4f86\u652f\u6490\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u3002\u6839\u64da\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u9810\u7b97\u554f\u8cac\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget\uff09\uff0c\u570b\u6703\u5c0d\u75ab\u60c5\u796d\u51fa\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u56e0\u61c9\u91d1\u984d\u5c07\u9054\u52305.1\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5360\u4e86\u76f4\u52302024\u5e74\u7684\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\u76844.4%\u3002\u76f8\u8f03\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c2007\u81f32009\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5f8c\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u632f\u8208\u65b9\u6848\u91d1\u984d\u7d041.8\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u53602008\u5e74\u81f32012\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\u76842.4%\u3002 ING\u9996\u5e2d\u570b\u969b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5948\u7279\u5229\uff08James Knightley\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u5bb6\u5ead\u6240\u5f97\u6bd4\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5c0d\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u800c\u8a00\u3002\u5931\u696d\u53d7\u76ca\u4eba\u73fe\u5728\u9818\u5230\u7684\u6551\u6fdf\u91d1\u984d\u6bd4\u4e4b\u524d\u591a\u51fa300\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u76f8\u8f03\u4e0b\uff0c2007\uff0d2009\u5e74\u8870\u9000\u6642\u671f\u70ba25\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u4e00\u9805\u7814\u7a76\u767c\u73fe\uff0c42%\u7684\u53d7\u76ca\u4eba\u7372\u5f97\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4ed6\u5011\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u591a\u3002 \u25cf\u6bd4\u8f03\u5065\u5168\u7684\u5bb6\u6236\u548c\u4f01\u696d \u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u8fea\u5357 (Karen Dynan) \u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u8870\u9000\u7684\u767c\u751f\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6709\u592a\u591a\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\u3001\u592a\u591a\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u6216\u592a\u591a\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u3002\u7576\u9019\u4e9b\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u958b\u59cb\u9006\u8f49\u6642\uff0c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u640d\u5bb3\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u81ea\u884c\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5bb6\u6236\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u63a7\u5236\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u9019\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u53c8\u6703\u964d\u4f4e\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u6536\u5165\u4e26\u5c0e\u81f4\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u3002\u300d \u4f46\u5728\u7206\u767c\u75ab\u60c5\u6642\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u9019\u7a2e\u5931\u8861\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u548c\u8ca8\u5e63\u652f\u6490\u63aa\u65bd\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u6bd4\u8f03\u5168\u9762\u7684\u640d\u5bb3\u3002\u8fea\u5357\u8aaa\uff0c\u548c\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e4b\u5f8c\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5bb6\u6236\u3001\u9280\u884c\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u8981\u597d\u5f97\u591a\u3002 \u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6642\uff0c\u5132\u84c4\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u64d4\u5fc3\u7684\u5bb6\u6236\u6703\u770b\u7dca\u8377\u5305\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u63a1\u8cfc\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u66f4\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u30024\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u5132\u84c4\u6298\u5408\u5e74\u7387\u70ba2.8\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u662f\u5371\u6a5f\u524d\u7684\u5169\u500d\u3002\u9019\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u5f97\u4ee5\u5728\u91cd\u65b0\u6062\u5fa9\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u82b1\u9322\u4e0d\u624b\u8edf\u3002 \u25cf\u77ed\u7f3a\u3001\u74f6\u9838\u3001\u901a\u81a8\u98a8\u96aa \u5feb\u901f\u5fa9\u7526\u7684\u7f3a\u9ede\u4e4b\u4e00\u5c31\u662f\u4f9b\u61c9\u8d95\u4e0d\u4e0a\u9700\u6c42\u53cd\u5f48\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5f15\u767c\u74f6\u9838\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u5fa9\u7526\u5f8c\u591a\u5e74\u624d\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u5de5\u8cc7\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\u3002 \u5317\u65b9\u4fe1\u8a17\uff08Northern Trust\uff09\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8b5a\u7d0d\u9b91\u59c6\uff08Carl Tannenbaum\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u6240\u8aaa\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6625\u5b63\u6fc0\u589e\u7684\u529b\u9053\u8b93\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4f01\u696d\u63aa\u624b\u4e0d\u53ca\u3002\u300d 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content=\"\u7f8e\u570b\u76ee\u524d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u8207\u8fd1\u4ee3\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u6b21\u5fa9\u7526\u90fd\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u52de\u5de5\u64fa\u812b\u4f4e\u8ff7\u5f8c\uff0c\u6240\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u50b7\u5bb3\u5c07\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u524d\u5e7e\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f2007\uff0d2009\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3002 \u6b64\u6b21\u5fa9\u7526\u7684\u63a8\u529b\u4f86\u81ea\u64c1\u6709\u6578\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u984d\u5916\u5132\u84c4\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\uff0c\u6025\u8457\u62db\u52df\u4eba\u624d\u7684\u5546\u5bb6\u4ee5\u53ca\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6490\u3002 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\u5948\u7279\u5229\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u6d6e\u73fe\u7684\u6642\u9593\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u9031\u671f\u66f4\u65e9\uff0c\u85aa\u8cc7\u6210\u9577\u5f37\u52c1\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u901a\u81a8\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u65e9\u5347\u606f\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5f15\u767c\u80a1\u7968\u8ce3\u58d3\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u62d6\u7d2f\u623f\u5e02\u7b49\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u7684\u7522\u696d\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u6210\u9577\u6e1b\u7de9\u3002 \u4e2d\u592e\u793e\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/newsforchinese.com\/v3\/2021\/06\/13\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%be%a9%e7%94%a6%e8%88%87%e4%bb%a5%e5%be%80%e6%9c%894%e5%a4%a7%e5%b7%ae%e7%95%b0\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/newsforchinese.com\/v3\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/1200x900_52755960817.jpg\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:image:secure_url\" 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content=\"\u7f8e\u570b\u76ee\u524d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u8207\u8fd1\u4ee3\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u6b21\u5fa9\u7526\u90fd\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u52de\u5de5\u64fa\u812b\u4f4e\u8ff7\u5f8c\uff0c\u6240\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u50b7\u5bb3\u5c07\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u524d\u5e7e\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f2007\uff0d2009\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3002 \u6b64\u6b21\u5fa9\u7526\u7684\u63a8\u529b\u4f86\u81ea\u64c1\u6709\u6578\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u984d\u5916\u5132\u84c4\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\uff0c\u6025\u8457\u62db\u52df\u4eba\u624d\u7684\u5546\u5bb6\u4ee5\u53ca\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6490\u3002 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\u7d93\u6fdf\u53cd\u5f48\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5f15\u767c\u4e86\u52d5\u76ea\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u63a5\u8fd1\u64f4\u5f35\u7d50\u675f\u6642\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u3001\u539f\u6750\u6599\u548c\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u77ed\u7f3a\u554f\u984c\u63d0\u65e9\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u8a31\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u548c\u806f\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\uff08Fed\uff09\u90fd\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u6500\u5347\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u6642\u73fe\u8c61\uff1b\u4f46\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u64d4\u5fc3\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u5df2\u7d93\u5b8c\u5168\u6062\u5fa9\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002 \u6c7a\u7b56\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u516c\u53f8\uff08Decision Economics, Inc. \uff09\u9996\u5e2d\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u517c\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u8cfd\u5948(Allen Sinai) \u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u5f9e\u672a\u7d93\u6b77\u904e\u9019\u985e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5d29\u6f70\u5f8c\u5982\u69ae\u666f\u822c\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u5f9e\u672a\u898b\u904e\u3002\u300d \u53bb\u5e74\u6625\u5929\uff0c2019\u51a0\u72c0\u75c5\u6bd2\u75be\u75c5\uff08COVID-19\uff09\u9632\u75ab\u5c01\u9396\u63aa\u65bd\u8b93\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5982\u81ea\u7531\u843d\u9ad4\u822c\u4e0b\u589c\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u548c\u6c7a\u7b56\u7576\u5c40\u64d4\u5fc3\uff0c\u52de\u5de5\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u6050\u6015\u9700\u8981\u6578\u5e74\u7684\u6642\u9593\u624d\u80fd\u6062\u5fa9\u5143\u6c23\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u537b\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u898f\u6a21\u5c07\u5728\u672c\u5b63\u8d85\u904e\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u767c\u4e4b\u524d\u3002\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u9810\u4f30\uff0c\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\uff08GDP\uff09\u5c07\u6b65\u4e0a\u5018\u82e5\u672a\u66fe\u767c\u751f\u75ab\u60c5\u539f\u61c9\u8e0f\u4e0a\u7684\u8ecc\u8de1\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u81f3\u5c11\u6703\u66ab\u6642\u8d85\u8d8a\u5b83\u3002 \u57281990\uff0d1991\u5e74\u30012001\u5e74\u4ee5\u53ca2007\uff0d2009 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Fosler\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u8870\u9000\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u503c\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u800c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u51fa\u3001\u6536\u5165\u548c\u5c31\u696d\u9020\u6210\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u8d85\u904e\u4e00\u5e74\u30022007\u5e74\u623f\u5e02\u5d29\u76e4\u5f8c\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u8ca1\u52d9\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u53d7\u5230\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u800c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5275\u9054\u6578\u5e74\u3002 \u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0cCOVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u6e90\u65bc\u91d1\u878d\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u985e\u4f3c\u5929\u707d\u7834\u58de\u9020\u6210\u7684\u3002 \u4f5b\u65af\u52d2\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u300c\u75ab\u60c5\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u985b\u8986\u4e86\u666f\u6c23\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u300d 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Budget\uff09\uff0c\u570b\u6703\u5c0d\u75ab\u60c5\u796d\u51fa\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u56e0\u61c9\u91d1\u984d\u5c07\u9054\u52305.1\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5360\u4e86\u76f4\u52302024\u5e74\u7684\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\u76844.4%\u3002\u76f8\u8f03\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c2007\u81f32009\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5f8c\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u632f\u8208\u65b9\u6848\u91d1\u984d\u7d041.8\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u53602008\u5e74\u81f32012\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\u76842.4%\u3002 ING\u9996\u5e2d\u570b\u969b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5948\u7279\u5229\uff08James 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\u3002\u5b98\u54e1\u8868\u793a\uff0c2024\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u4e0d\u6703\u5347\u606f\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u5f9e2020\u5e743\u6708\u521d\u76844.2\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u98c6\u5347\u81f35\u6708\u5e95\u8fd17.1\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u76f8\u8f03\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u81a8\u8139\u4e0d\u52301.3\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u3002 \u570b\u6703\u4e5f\u6bd4\u524d\u5e7e\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6642\u66f4\u5feb\u901f\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u901a\u904e\u591a\u56de\u5408\u7684\u632f\u8208\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u64f4\u5927\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u91d1\u548c\u85aa\u8cc7\u4fdd\u8b77\u8a08\u756b\uff0c\u4f86\u652f\u6490\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u3002\u6839\u64da\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u9810\u7b97\u554f\u8cac\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget\uff09\uff0c\u570b\u6703\u5c0d\u75ab\u60c5\u796d\u51fa\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u56e0\u61c9\u91d1\u984d\u5c07\u9054\u52305.1\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5360\u4e86\u76f4\u52302024\u5e74\u7684\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\u76844.4%\u3002\u76f8\u8f03\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c2007\u81f32009\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5f8c\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u632f\u8208\u65b9\u6848\u91d1\u984d\u7d041.8\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u53602008\u5e74\u81f32012\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\u76842.4%\u3002 ING\u9996\u5e2d\u570b\u969b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5948\u7279\u5229\uff08James Knightley\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u5bb6\u5ead\u6240\u5f97\u6bd4\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5c0d\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u800c\u8a00\u3002\u5931\u696d\u53d7\u76ca\u4eba\u73fe\u5728\u9818\u5230\u7684\u6551\u6fdf\u91d1\u984d\u6bd4\u4e4b\u524d\u591a\u51fa300\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u76f8\u8f03\u4e0b\uff0c2007\uff0d2009\u5e74\u8870\u9000\u6642\u671f\u70ba25\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u4e00\u9805\u7814\u7a76\u767c\u73fe\uff0c42%\u7684\u53d7\u76ca\u4eba\u7372\u5f97\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4ed6\u5011\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u591a\u3002 \u25cf\u6bd4\u8f03\u5065\u5168\u7684\u5bb6\u6236\u548c\u4f01\u696d \u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u8fea\u5357 (Karen Dynan) 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